Viendo archivo del martes, 5 septiembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Sep 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 249 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 SEP 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 9154
(S19W07) CONTINUED IN A GRADUAL GROWTH PHASE AND REMAINED THE
LARGEST AND MOST FLARE PRODUCTIVE OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS. IT
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A
C6/SF AT 05/0008 UTC. REGION 9149 (N13W35) SHOWED SIGNS OF MINOR
DECAY AND PRODUCED AN ISOLATED SUBFLARE. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE
STABLE. SOHO/LASCO IMAGES INDICATED A PARTIAL-HALO CME ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 4 SEPTEMBER (32-DEGREE EXTENT,
N13W38).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 9154 MAY PRODUCE AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON DAY ONE. ACTIVE TO
MAJOR STORM LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR 7 - 8 SEPTEMBER DUE TO AN
EXPECTED CME PASSAGE AT EARTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT
DISAPPEARANCE OF 4 SEPTEMBER. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MAY REACH HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 SEP a 08 SEP
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 SEP 180 Previsto 06 SEP-08 SEP 185/190/190 Media de 90 Días 05 SEP 181
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP 011/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP 007/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP 015/012-030/030-030/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 SEP a 08 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 20% |
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