Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 septiembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Sep 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 248 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 SEP 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
9154 (S19E06) SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SPOT COUNT AND AREA.
IT PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 04/0109 UTC ALONG WITH ISOLATED
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 9149 (N14W22) SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REMAINING
REGIONS WERE MOSTLY SMALL AND STABLE. A 32-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST
SEEN NEAR N13 W38, ERUPTED FROM THE DISK DURING 04/0500 - 0600 UTC.
NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR ANOTHER M-CLASS
FLARE FROM REGION 9154. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 9149.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL 04/1330 UTC. FIELD ACTIVITY
INCREASED TO QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY
DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE SECOND DAY. UNSETTLED
TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED BEGIN LATE ON THE THIRD DAY IN
RESPONSE TO TODAY'S FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 SEP a 07 SEP
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 SEP 171 Previsto 05 SEP-07 SEP 175/175/180 Media de 90 Días 04 SEP 181
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP 010/012-010/015-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 SEP a 07 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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