Viendo archivo del domingo, 30 julio 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jul 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 212 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 JUL 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
DAY WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C7 FLARE AT 30/1210Z. SOHO/EIT
IMAGERY SUGGESTS REGION 9107 (S18E56) AS THE LIKELY SOURCE. A C4/SF
FLARE WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9105 (N16E40) AT 30/1314Z, AND REGION
9103 (N11W26) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFAINT FLARES WITHOUT NOTABLE X-RAY
ENHANCEMENT. SOME SMALLER C-CLASS FLARES WERE ALSO OBSERVED DURING
THE DAY, BUT WITHOUT OPTICAL CORRELATION.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED MODERATE-LEVEL ACTIVITY BY THE THIRD DAY DUE TO
RETURNING REGIONS EXPECTED ON THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS OF LOCAL SUBSTORMING OBSERVED IN THE NIGHTTIME
SECTOR.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH A GREATER
CHANCE OF ACTIVE PERIODS AND ISOLATED MINOR STORMING AT HIGHER
LATITUDES FROM INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLES EXPECTED ON DAY TWO AND
THREE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 JUL a 02 AUG
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 JUL 150 Previsto 31 JUL-02 AUG 150/155/155 Media de 90 Días 30 JUL 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUL 017/027 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUL 010/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JUL-02 AUG 008/008-012/018-012/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 JUL a 02 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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