Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 junio 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jun 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 181 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 JUN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE SEVERAL, MOSTLY
LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THIS PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS A C6
EVENT AT 29/0751Z. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ALL THE OTHER C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY ON OR BEHIND THE NW AND
SW LIMB. REGION 9062 (S16E23) IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT REGION ON THE
VISIBLE DISK AND IS NOW A D TYPE SPOT GROUP COVERING 360 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. SOME GROWTH WAS NOTED IN THIS REGION DURING THE
PERIOD, BUT SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY HAS YET TO OCCUR. A NEW ACTIVE
REGION WITH FREQUENT SURGING IS ROTATING THE NE LIMB. REMAINING
REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM THE REGIONS ON THE WEST LIMB
IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY. MOSTLY LOW LEVEL, ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH THE ACTIVE CONDITIONS
CONFINED TO LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO HIGH LATITUDES IN LOCAL NIGHTTIME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 JUN a 02 JUL
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 JUN 163 Previsto 30 JUN-02 JUL 165/165/170 Media de 90 Días 29 JUN 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUN 011/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUN 014/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUN-02 JUL 010/008-010/008-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 JUN a 02 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 11% | 16% | 11% |
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