Viendo archivo del martes, 27 junio 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jun 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 179 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 JUN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE TWO EVENTS OF NOTE
THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS A 27 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTION FROM NEAR
N44W82 AT AROUND 27/1000Z. AN IMPRESSIVE CME WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING
THE ERUPTION, BUT THE MATERIAL DOES NOT APPEAR EARTHBOUND. REGION
9062 (S18E48) PRODUCED A C9/2N FLARE AT 27/1255Z. THIS REGION
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE. NEW REGION 9064 WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK HAVE PRODUCED LOW
LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO. AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ONE QUIET
PERIOD OBSERVED BETWEEN 27/09 - 12Z. A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM IS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE.
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON DAY TWO AND THREE, WITH
ISOLATED HIGH LATITUDE ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 JUN a 30 JUN
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 JUN 179 Previsto 28 JUN-30 JUN 165/165/170 Media de 90 Días 27 JUN 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUN 022/033 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUN 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUN-30 JUN 015/017-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 JUN a 30 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 06% | 06% | 02% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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