Viendo archivo del jueves, 6 abril 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Apr 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 097 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 APR 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S12E42)
PRODUCED AN M1/2B FLARE AT 06/0229UT. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY
A MINOR RADIO BURST AND A TYPE II SWEEP (ESTIMATE SHOCK VELOCITY OF
700KM/S). REGION 8948 RETAINS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT IT
AND MOST OF THE OTHER 11 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK APPEAR TO BE
SLOWLY DECLINING. REGION 8933 (N19W96) HAS QUIETLY ROTATED OFF THE
DISK. THE SMALL FILAMENT NEAR S15 E10 DISAPPEARED EARLY TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. RETURNING REGION 8910 (N13 L=069), A MAJOR FLARE
PRODUCER LAST ROTATION, IS DUE BACK ON THE EAST LIMB LATE TOMORROW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A
SHOCK WAS OBSERVED BY THE ACE SPACECRAFT AROUND 06/1600UT. THE
ASSOCIATED SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED AT 1640UT (37NT AS OBSERVED
AT SAN JUAN) AND THE FIELD HAS BEEN AT MAJOR STORM LEVELS SINCE THAT
TIME. THERE WERE MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS OBSERVED ON BOTH GOES 8 AND
GOES 10 STARTING AROUND 1800UT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOST LIKELY THE
CONSEQUENCE OF THE HALO CME OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE C9/2F FLARE AT
04/1541UT. THE SATELLITE PROTON EVENT WHICH BEGAN AT 04/2055UT,
ENDED TODAY AT 0155UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT STORM LEVELS FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW. THE FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 APR a 09 APR
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 APR 178 Previsto 07 APR-09 APR 175/180/180 Media de 90 Días 06 APR 185
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 APR 014/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 APR 030/033 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 APR-09 APR 025/030-010/020-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 APR a 09 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 11% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 06% | 01% | 01% |
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