Viendo archivo del lunes, 30 agosto 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Aug 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 242 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 AUG 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8681 (N21W16)
PRODUCED AN M3/2B AT 30/1805Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A
MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE II. THE GROWTH RATE SLOWED IN THIS REGION
BUT IT MAINTAINED ITS ANOMALOUS MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8674
(S24W50) PRODUCED A C9/1N AT 30/1448Z. THIS REGION EXHIBITED
MODERATE DECAY IN SUNSPOT NUMBER AND AREAL COVERAGE. NOTIFICATION
WAS RECEIVED OF A PARTIAL HALO CME EVENT WITH THE X1 FLARE AT
28/1805Z FROM REGION 8674. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
MATERIAL WAS SEEN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC AND THE EVENT IS
DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THERE WAS A
HALO CME WITH THE M3 FLARE ABOVE FROM REGION 8681.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE WITH M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS
8674 AND 8681. X-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8674 BUT
THAT POSSIBILITY DECREASES AS THE REGION DECAYS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 30/0800-1200Z INTERVAL. DURING THAT TIME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
RELATED TO THE IMPACT OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION. RATHER, BZ TURNED
SOUTHWARD PRIOR TO THAT TIME WHILE OTHER SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS
REMAINED UNREMARKABLE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON 31 AUG. ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING IS POSSIBLE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
THE PARTIAL HALO CME/X1 FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. HAD THE CME BEEN
AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE EARTH, A MUCH LARGER STORM WOULD BE EXPECTED.
UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 01-02 SEP.
THE FORECAST FOR 02 SEP WILL BECOME ELEVATED IF NOTIFICATION IS
RECEIVED THAT THE M3/2B EVENT TODAY PRODUCED A HALO OR PARTIAL HALO
CME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTON EVENT
DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 AUG a 02 SEP
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 AUG 198 Previsto 31 AUG-02 SEP 194/185/165 Media de 90 Días 30 AUG 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG 013/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 AUG a 02 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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