Viendo archivo del martes, 3 agosto 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Aug 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Número 215 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 AUG 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8647 (S18W63) PRODUCED
AN X1/1B EVENT AT 02/2125Z THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II
SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WITH A SPEED OF 646 KM/S, AND A 570 SFU BURST
AT 10CM. THIS REGION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
AN INCREASED SPOT COUNT AND COMPLEX MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 03/1955Z. REGION 8651
(N26W18) IS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK WITH A WHITE
LIGHT AREA OF AROUND 1080 MILLIONTHS. THIS REGION AND REGION 8645
(S25W55) CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS 8658 (S25W13) AND 8659 (S23E22).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGIONS 8645, 8647, AND 8651.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ON DAY TWO.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 AUG a 06 AUG
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 AUG 211 Previsto 04 AUG-06 AUG 200/195/190 Media de 90 Días 03 AUG 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 AUG 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 AUG 007/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 AUG-06 AUG 010/012-015/025-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 AUG a 06 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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