Viendo archivo del lunes, 9 agosto 1999

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 221 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 AUG 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C4/1F LONG DURATION EVENT FROM REGION 8657 (S30W22) AT 09/0258Z. A FAINT HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 8662 (S16E21), THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, DOUBLED IN SIZE, NOW AN E-TYPE REGION MEASURING OVER 230 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS AND MINOR SUBFLARES WERE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. THE PERIOD ENDED WITH AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED LONG DURATION C2 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW LEVELS. REGIONS 8657 AND 8662 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWARD BZ DOMINATED MOST OF THE PERIOD, CAUSING ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 AUG a 12 AUG
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 AUG 138
  Previsto   10 AUG-12 AUG  135/135/135
  Media de 90 Días        09 AUG 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 AUG  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG  013/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG  008/015-008/008-005/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 AUG a 12 AUG
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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