Viendo archivo del jueves, 5 agosto 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Aug 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 217 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 AUG 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8645 (S28W78) PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 05/1623Z ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8647 (S19W87) PRODUCED
ISOLATED SUBFLARES AND DISPLAYED NEAR CONTINUOUS SURGING AS IT BEGAN
CROSSING THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8651 (N26W44) WAS STABLE AS IT
CONTINUED A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEW
REGION 8661 (S14E01) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGIONS 8645
AND 8647 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES AS THEY DEPART THE
VISIBLE DISK EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 AUG a 08 AUG
| Clase M | 70% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 AUG 177 Previsto 06 AUG-08 AUG 170/165/160 Media de 90 Días 05 AUG 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 AUG 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 AUG 006/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 AUG-08 AUG 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 AUG a 08 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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