Viendo archivo del viernes, 18 junio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jun 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 169 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 JUN 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS. THE LARGEST
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C7/1N FROM REGION 8585 (N38E05). SEVERAL
OTHER SMALL TO MIDDLE LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED. SOHO DATA
INDICATED THAT MOST OF THESE EVENTS WERE FROM BEYOND THE NORTHWEST
LIMB. HOWEVER, A MODERATE DURATION C5 X-RAY EVENT WAS OBSERVED AT
18/1657Z THAT CORRELATED WITH A FLARE BRIGHT MOUND NEAR NE25. LAST
ROTATION, THIS AREA WAS COMPRISED OF SEVERAL ACTIVE REGIONS THAT
PRODUCED FREQUENT C-CLASS AND OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. OTHER DISK
REGIONS EXHIBITED ONLY MINOR EVOLUTION.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE AREA
ROTATING OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB. A BETTER DETERMINATION OF THE
FLARE POTENTIAL OF THIS AREA MUST AWAIT ITS APPEARANCE TO THE
VISIBLE DISK.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 JUN a 21 JUN
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 JUN 147 Previsto 19 JUN-21 JUN 150/153/156 Media de 90 Días 18 JUN 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUN 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUN 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUN-21 JUN 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 JUN a 21 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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