Viendo archivo del viernes, 4 junio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jun 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 155 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 JUN 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8552 (N19W86)
PRODUCED AN M3/2B FLARE AT 04/0703UT. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INTENSITY 3 TYPE IV SWEEP AND A PARTIAL HALO CME. NUMEROUS
C-CLASS FLARES ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE PAST DAY FROM A NUMBER OF
REGIONS. NEW REGIONS NUMBERED INCLUDE 8568 (N12W55), 8569 (N18E73),
AND 8570 (S14E74).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
FLARES ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 04/0925UT AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS. SO FAR THE
MAXIMUM FLUX OF THIS EVENT WAS 64 PFU AT 04/1055UT. THE EVENT SOURCE
IS PRESUMED TO BE THE M3/2B AND CME AT 04/0703UT. A PCA EVENT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTICLES, BEGINNING AT 04/1040UT AND REACHING A
MAXIMUM ABSORPTION OF 2.5 DB AT 04/1850UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN
RESPONSE TO THE CME EVENT DESCRIBED ABOVE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 JUN a 07 JUN
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 JUN 171 Previsto 05 JUN-07 JUN 170/165/160 Media de 90 Días 04 JUN 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUN 009/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUN 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUN-07 JUN 018/017-015/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 JUN a 07 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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