Viendo archivo del viernes, 28 mayo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 May 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 148 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 MAY 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGIONS 8558 (N14E68) AND
8559 (N21E20) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8559 IS NOW A
LARGE ALPHA-TYPE SPOT GROUP WHICH TRAILS REGION 8552 (N21E11).
REGIONS 8558 AND 8557 (S26E60) PRODUCED C2 XRAY FLARES AT 28/0553UT
AND 28/1212UT, RESPECTIVELY. REGION 8552 CONTINUES TO GROW IN
COMPLEXITY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM
AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD DUE TO RECURRENT
CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS AND POSSIBLE CME INFLUENCE. THE SECOND AND
THIRD DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 MAY a 31 MAY
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 MAY 152 Previsto 29 MAY-31 MAY 158/163/170 Media de 90 Días 28 MAY 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAY 007/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAY 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAY-31 MAY 020/025-012/020-012/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 MAY a 31 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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