Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 mayo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 May 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 141 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 MAY 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8549 (N26W79) WAS VERY
ACTIVE, PRODUCING NUMEROUS OPTICAL SUB-FLARES. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
X-RAY EVENT WAS A LONG DURATION C2.4 FLARE. THE FLARE BEGAN AT
APPROXIMATELY 21/1715Z, REACHING A MAXIMUM AT 21/1949Z, AND WAS
STILL IN PROGRESS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. REGION 8551 (N32E62)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES. REGION
8549 REMAINS ACTIVE WHILE ROTATING OFF THE DISK, AND REGION 8545
(N36W10) SHOWS SIGNS OF INCREASING MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 MAY a 24 MAY
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 MAY 140 Previsto 22 MAY-24 MAY 140/140/145 Media de 90 Días 21 MAY 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAY 004/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAY 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAY-24 MAY 005/008-005/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 MAY a 24 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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