Viendo archivo del sábado, 24 abril 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Apr 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 114 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 APR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE EVENT
OF THE PERIOD WAS A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM BEHIND THE NW
LIMB THAT PRODUCED A PROTON EVENT. EJECTA WAS FIRST OBSERVED AT
AROUND 24/1230Z AND THE LIKELY SOURCE WAS OLD REGION 8517 WHICH
ROTATED FROM VIEW EARLY ON 22 APRIL NEAR NORTH 20. THE REGION WAS
DEVELOPING AS IT ROTATED THE LIMB. REGION 8522 (N16E50) THOUGH
SMALL, PRODUCED THREE SUBFLARES WITH MINOR B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS. NEW
REGIONS 8523 (N32E42) AND 8524 (N22E53) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED PERIODS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 24/1610Z
AND IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD WAS CROSSED AT
24/1840Z AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLOWLY, REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 22
PFU LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED YET ON THE
GREATER THAN 100 MEV FLUX AND POLAR CAP ABSORPTION WAS JUST UNDER 1
DB AT ISSUE TIME.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS. MATERIAL FROM THIS MORNING'S CME IS
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 APR a 27 APR
| Clase M | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 APR 101 Previsto 25 APR-27 APR 105/110/115 Media de 90 Días 24 APR 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 APR 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 APR 007/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 APR-27 APR 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 APR a 27 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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