Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 febrero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Feb 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 041 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 FEB 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8457 (N17E48) AND 8458
(S18E55) PRODUCED SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 8458
APPEARS NOW AS A MODERATELY LARGE D-TYPE SPOT GROUP COVERING AS MUCH
AS 600 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. MAGNETIC ANALYSIS INDICATE
ONLY MINOR COMPLEXITY IN THIS REGION FOR NOW. NEW REGION 8460
(S17E70) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS AN H-TYPE SPOT NE OF REGION 8458.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGIONS 8457 AND 8458 ARE THE LIKELY SOURCE REGIONS FOR
CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8458 HOLDS SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH A SINGLE UNSETTLED PERIOD
OBSERVED BETWEEN 10/1500-1800Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 FEB a 13 FEB
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 FEB 152 Previsto 11 FEB-13 FEB 155/160/165 Media de 90 Días 10 FEB 140
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 FEB 002/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 FEB 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 FEB-13 FEB 010/010-008/008-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 FEB a 13 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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