Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 enero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 014 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 JAN 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8440 (N19E56)
PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE INTERVAL. THE FLARES WERE AN
M3/SN AT 1020Z, AND AN M1/SN AT 1903Z. BOTH EVENTS WERE IMPULSIVE
WITH LITTLE RESPONSE ACROSS THE RADIO SPECTRUM. REGION 8440 ALSO
GENERATED A C6/1N AT 0100Z. REGION 8439 (S24E53), THE LARGEST GROUP
ON THE DISK, HAD A FEW SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ELSEWHERE, NEW
REGION 8441 (N18E28) WAS BORN ON THE DISK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK
AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST AT
MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED CONDITIONS VARYING FROM QUIET
TO MAJOR STORM. THIS DISTURBANCE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
CORONAL MASS EJECTION, IS NOW WEAKENING.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED BRIEF SUBSTORMS MAY BRING ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING
LOCAL NIGHTTIMES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 JAN a 17 JAN
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 JAN 137 Previsto 15 JAN-17 JAN 150/160/170 Media de 90 Días 14 JAN 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JAN 019/028 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JAN 020/026 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JAN-17 JAN 010/012-010/009-005/009
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 JAN a 17 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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