Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 enero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 016 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 JAN 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO M-CLASS FLARES WERE
REPORTED: AN M3 AT 16/1207UT AND AN M1 AT 16/1956UT. ALTHOUGH BOTH
FLARES WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED THEY WERE MOST LIKELY PRODUCED BY
REGION 8440 (N19E29). REGION 8440 IS THE DOMINANT ACTIVE REGION ON
THE DISK. BESIDES THE PROBABLE M-CLASS FLARES IT HAS PRODUCED
NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE DAY. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY A 31
SPOT EAI GROUP WITH A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. THE OTHER
ACTIVE REGION WAS 8339 (S24E28). 8339 PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 16/0137UT
BUT HAS SHOWN NO ACTIVITY SINCE THEN. REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS
WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE. CONTINUED M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8440 AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES FROM 8439.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH LEVELS ALL DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PERIOD 16/0000UT TO 16/0600UT. DURING THAT
PERIOD THE FLUX FELL BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 JAN a 19 JAN
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 JAN 159 Previsto 17 JAN-19 JAN 160/165/170 Media de 90 Días 16 JAN 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JAN 010/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JAN 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JAN-19 JAN 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 JAN a 19 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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