Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 diciembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Dec 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 354 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 DEC 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8415 (N20E38)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 20/0900Z THAT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR
RADIO BURSTS. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW TO MID C-CLASS
EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. MIXED MAGNETIC POLARITIES REMAINED IN THIS
REGION BUT AREAL COVERAGE IN WHITE LIGHT DECREASED SLIGHTLY. A SMALL
CLASS C SUNSPOT GROUP ROTATED ONTO THE DISK NEAR N18E67 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8416. TWO LESSER REGIONS EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8415 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED. DURING THE PERIOD,
SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED, DENSITY DECREASED, AND SEVERAL
INTERVALS OF PROLONGED SOUTHWARD BZ WERE OBSERVED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF 21 DEC
WHEN A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FROM THAT TIME THROUGH THE END OF 22 DEC.
DURING THIS DISTURBANCE, PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL LATITUDES WITH ISOLATED INTERVALS OF MAJOR STORMING POSSIBLE AT
HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 DEC a 23 DEC
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 DEC 135 Previsto 21 DEC-23 DEC 130/128/129 Media de 90 Días 20 DEC 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 DEC 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 DEC 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 DEC-23 DEC 018/020-025/025-012/009
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 DEC a 23 DEC
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 30% | 01% |
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