Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 enero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 004 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 JAN 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. A PAIR OF MINOR
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED, THE LARGEST, AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-3 BURST OCCURRED AT 04/0836Z. REGION 8421 (N26W79)
MAINTAINS MODERATE COMPLEXITY AND EXHIBITED FREQUENT SURGING AS IT
NEARS THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8426 (N15E04) AND 8428 (N22W35)
PRODUCED MINOR SUBFLARES BUT OTHERWISE SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.
NEW REGION 8431 (S28E69) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8421 REMAINS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR A LARGE
FLARE, BUT EXPECT LOW M-CLASS AT BEST.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM DAY 1 TO LATE ON DAY 2.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE ON DAY 2 THROUGH DAY 3 IN
RESPONSE TO THE LONG-DURATION C6/1N FLARE ON 03/1514Z.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 JAN a 07 JAN
| Clase M | 45% | 35% | 20% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 JAN 147 Previsto 05 JAN-07 JAN 140/135/130 Media de 90 Días 04 JAN 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JAN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JAN 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JAN-07 JAN 005/008-012/015-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 JAN a 07 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 25% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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