Viendo archivo del sábado, 10 octubre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Oct 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 283 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 OCT 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S LARGEST FLARE WAS A C7
AT 1318Z. THE LOCATION ON THE DISK WAS NOT OBSERVED DUE TO WEATHER
LIMITED OBSERVATIONS. REGION 8350 (N19W38) APPEARED TO BE STABLE
DURING THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A SMALL INTRUSION OF LEADER POLARITY
FLUX INTO THE TRAILER PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS PART OF THE GROUP
WAS OBSERVED TO PRODUCE SOME POINT BRIGHTENING ACTIVITY. REGION 8355
(S22E23), THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK (180 MILLIONTHS), WAS STABLE
AND QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8350 SEEMS TO BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
FLARE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAGNETIC FIELD STRUCTURE IN REGION
8355 APPEARS TO BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT: AN OCCASIONAL C-FLARE IS
LIKELY FROM THIS GROUP AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. THERE WAS AN ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIOD FROM 0300-0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES
ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 OCT a 13 OCT
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 OCT 121 Previsto 11 OCT-13 OCT 125/125/130 Media de 90 Días 10 OCT 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 OCT 010/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 OCT 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 OCT-13 OCT 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 OCT a 13 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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