Viendo archivo del miércoles, 7 octubre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Oct 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 280 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 OCT 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8355 (S21E64)
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY. SEVEN
C-CLASS AND TWO M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED. AN M1/1N OCCURRED AT
07/1247Z AND A M2/SF AT 07/1712Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS PREVENTING AN
ACCURATE ANALYSIS BUT EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST A STRONG MAGNETIC
GRADIENT EXISTS AND A DELTA CONFIGURATION LIKELY EXIST IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THIS REGION. REGION 8350 (N19E02) CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MINOR SUBFLARING BUT HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TWO
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8354 (S18E00), AND REGION 8355
(S21E64).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8355 IS STILL DEVELOPING. FURTHER M-CLASS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AND IF GROWTH CONTINUES AT ITS PRESENT RATE,
X-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. SOLAR
WIND SPEED HAS BEEN ON A STEADY INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY'S SHOCK WAS
OBSERVED AT L1 AT 06/1530Z. BZ FINALLY WENT SOUTHWARD AROUND 07/10Z
AND ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE PRESENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 OCT a 10 OCT
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 OCT 124 Previsto 08 OCT-10 OCT 130/135/138 Media de 90 Días 07 OCT 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 OCT 002/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 OCT 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 OCT-10 OCT 015/015-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 OCT a 10 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 15% | 08% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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