Viendo archivo del viernes, 11 septiembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Sep 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 254 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 SEP 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8333 (N12W55)
GENERATED A M2/1B X-RAY EVENT AT 11/1603Z, WHICH WAS PRECEEDED BY
TWO EARLIER C1/SF EVENTS, AND FOLLOWED BY A C2/SF EVENT. THE M2
FLARE OCCURRED OVER SEVERAL ERUPTIVE CENTERS, AND HAD AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH SPEED BSD (BRIGHT SURGE ON THE DISK). A SMALL ARCH FILAMENT
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH PORTION OF THE REGION.
REGION 8333 IS CLASSIFIED AS A 9-SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP. ONE NEW
SMALL B-TYPE REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY, 8334 AT S25W35.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8333.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS IN THE MODERATE TO
HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 SEP a 14 SEP
| Clase M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 SEP 139 Previsto 12 SEP-14 SEP 135/130/125 Media de 90 Días 11 SEP 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP 010/009-010/009-005/009
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 SEP a 14 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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