Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 septiembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Sep 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 245 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 SEP 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8319
(N19W81) PRODUCED AN M2/SF FLARE AT 02/1707UT. THERE WERE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED IN THIS STRUCTURALLY SIMPLE SPOT GROUP.
REGION 8323 (S22E16) REMAINED THE FOCUS OF INTEREST, GIVEN ITS LARGE
AREA (1430 MILLIONS) AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. IT PRODUCED SEVERAL
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ASIDE FROM A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREA, NO
REMARKABLE CHANGES WERE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS REGION. NEW REGION 8325
(S28E47), A SMALL A-TYPE GROUP, WAS ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8323 AND 8319.
THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8323.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS OCCURRED AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS DURING
THE FIRST TWO DAYS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FINAL DAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 SEP a 05 SEP
| Clase M | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 SEP 163 Previsto 03 SEP-05 SEP 155/150/145 Media de 90 Días 02 SEP 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 SEP 013/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 SEP 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 SEP-05 SEP 012/012-015/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 SEP a 05 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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