Viendo archivo del sábado, 25 julio 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Jul 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 206 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 JUL 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. TWO C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED, ONE OF WHICH WAS OPTICALLY TIED TO REGION 8280
(S23E27). THIS REGION REMAINED A MODERATELY LARGE, STABLE H-TYPE.
REGION 8282 (N31E31) STABILIZED EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWING A DAY
OF MODERATE GROWTH. THERE WERE SOME SIGNS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY
WITHIN THE REGION WITH A WEAK DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION REPORTED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE
FROM REGION 8280 OR 8282.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL 25/0500UT.
ACTIVITY INCREASED DURING 25/0500 - 0900UT WITH ACTIVE LEVELS AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RETURNED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AFTER
25/0900UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT HIGH LEVELS
DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 JUL a 28 JUL
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 JUL 122 Previsto 26 JUL-28 JUL 124/126/128 Media de 90 Días 25 JUL 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUL 018/022 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUL 014/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUL-28 JUL 010/007-007/007-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 JUL a 28 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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