Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 junio 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Jun 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 155 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 JUN 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/2308Z AND REGION 8232 (S19E50) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 04/2039Z. REGIONS 8232 AND 8233 (N28E49) BOTH PRODUCED
SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. MAGNETICALLY, REGION 8232
SHOWED SEVERAL ISOLATED POLES INDICATING SOME MIXING OF POLARITIES
BUT OVERALL THE REGION WAS STABLE. THE RATE OF EMERGENCE OF REGION
8233 SLOWED. A SMALL NEW REGION EMERGED NEAR N16E66 AND WAS NUMBERED
AS REGION 8234. BETWEEN 03/2130-2257Z, A REPORT WAS RECEIVED OF A
LARGE DISAPPEARING FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR S40E70. NO CME WAS OBSERVED
COINCIDENT WITH THIS EVENT.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW. REGION 8232 SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES AND IS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT A FEW HIGH LATITUDE SITES. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE APPROACHING HIGH LEVELS
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 05-06 JUN.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 JUN a 07 JUN
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 JUN 112 Previsto 05 JUN-07 JUN 113/114/112 Media de 90 Días 04 JUN 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUN 012(EST.)/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUN 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUN-07 JUN 010/014-010/012-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 JUN a 07 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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