Viendo archivo del jueves, 28 mayo 1998

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 May 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 148 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 MAY 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8226 (N18W81) PRODUCED A M1/SF WITH AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AND MINOR RADIO BURSTS AT 28/1353Z. THIS REGION IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES INCLUDING A C8 AT 26/1912Z WHICH ALSO PRODUCED AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE. LIMB PROXIMITY HAS MADE MEASUREMENTS DIFFICULT BUT MAGNETIC ANALYSIS SUGGEST A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8224 HAS ROTATED AROUND THE WEST LIMB NEAR S24 BUT DID PRODUCE A C3/SF AT 26/0101Z. REGION 8227 (N26E53), A D-TYPE BETA GROUP, PRODUCED A C2/SF WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS AT 28/1126Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8226 IS CAPABLE OF FURTHER M-CLASS ACTIVITY AS IT ROTATES THE WEST LIMB. ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8227.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH 30/1600Z. WE EXPECT PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ON 30-31 MAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LONG DURATION C7 X-RAY EVENT ON 27/1335Z. A CME OCCURRED WITH THIS EVENT AND EJECTA APPEARS EARTHBOUND.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 MAY a 31 MAY
Clase M20%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 MAY 098
  Previsto   29 MAY-31 MAY  098/098/096
  Media de 90 Días        28 MAY 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAY  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAY  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAY-31 MAY  007/008-012/015-018/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 MAY a 31 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%30%40%
Tormenta Menor01%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%40%45%
Tormenta Menor05%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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