Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 marzo 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Mar 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 073 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 MAR 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8173 (S18W96) PRODUCED A
C5/SF AT 13/2108Z AS IT ROUNDED THE WEST LIMB. AN ASSOCIATED CME WAS
OBSERVED BUT MATERIAL APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY WESTWARD DIRECTED. REGION
8179 (S22E09) EXHIBITED IMPRESSIVE GROWTH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
IS NOW A D-TYPE SPOT GROUP WITH MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. SPOT
COUNT WENT FROM 12 TO 38 IN JUST 12 HOURS. THIS REGION PRODUCED
NUMEROUS SUBFLARES THIS PERIOD, MOST WITH HIGH B OR LOW C-CLASS
X-RAYS. REGION 8176 DECAYED SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A 15 SPOT E-TYPE
GROUP. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. AT ITS PRESENT GROWTH RATE, REGION 8179 WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED HIGH.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 MAR a 17 MAR
| Clase M | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 MAR 120 Previsto 15 MAR-17 MAR 120/122/122 Media de 90 Días 14 MAR 095
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAR 012/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAR 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAR-17 MAR 008/005-008/008-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 MAR a 17 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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