Viendo archivo del lunes, 8 diciembre 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 Dec 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 342 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 DEC 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8113 (N20W87) IS
QUIETLY ROTATING OFF THE VISIBLE DISK. IMPRESSIVE NEW REGION GROWTH
OCCURRED TODAY WITH 3 NEW SPOTTED REGIONS DEVELOPING. NEWLY NUMBERED
REGIONS INCLUDE: 8118 (S38E37), A 6 SPOT BXO GROUP, 8119 (N32E00), A
3 SPOT BXO, AND 8120 (S22E36), A 5 SPOT BXO GROUP. SEVEN SPOTTED
REGIONS NOW EXIST BUT ALL ARE SMALL WITH SIMPLE MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATIONS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8118 EXHIBITED SIGNS OF GROWTH AND EXPERIENCED
PERIODS OF STRONG SURGING; HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST THREAT MAY COME FROM
REGION 8119. ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO REGION 8116 (N26W03) MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT IF EITHER OR BOTH REGIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. BOTH
REGIONS ARE SHOWING SOME SLOW GROWTH.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY 3 DUE TO A HALO CME OBSERVED AT
06/1030UT. THE CME CORRELATED WELL WITH A VERY LONG DURATION C1
FLARE (06/1052 - 07/0041UT) FROM REGION 8113. THE APPARENT LOW SPEED
OF THE CME COUPLED WITH A PRESENT LOW WIND VELOCITY SUGGEST
WEDENSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GEOMAGNETIC EFFECTS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 DEC a 11 DEC
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 DEC 098 Previsto 09 DEC-11 DEC 099/099/102 Media de 90 Días 08 DEC 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 DEC 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 DEC 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 DEC-11 DEC 005/008-020/013-020/013
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 DEC a 11 DEC
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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