Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 mayo 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 May 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 121 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 MAY 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A SMALL REGION IS
ROTATING ONTO THE DISK NEAR S28E90 BUT NO SPOTS WERE VISIBLE DURING
THE PERIOD.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE LATE ON 30 APR, THEN BECAME QUIET TO
UNSETTLED UNTIL 01/1500Z. ACTIVE CONDITIONS BEGAN ANEW AFTER THAT
TIME. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN VELOCITY (TO
APPROXIMATELY 475 KM/S) AND DENSITY (47 P/CC) AT ABOUT 01/1200Z. NO
MAGNETIC CLOUD SIGNATURE WAS PRESENT IN BZ. THE SOLAR WIND
PARAMETERS ABOVE POINT TO A CME CAUSE OF THE DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. A CME WAS OBSERVED BY A SPACE-BASED CORONAGRAPH EARLY ON 27
APR.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE REST OF 01
MAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF 02 MAY AS THE CME FINISHES ITS TRANSIT BY
THE EARTH. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 MAY a 04 MAY
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 MAY 072 Previsto 02 MAY-04 MAY 073/075/076 Media de 90 Días 01 MAY 074
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 APR 013/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAY 015/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAY-04 MAY 015/012-010/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 MAY a 04 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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