Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (19 Aug, 20 Aug) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 18/0659Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 18/0101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 18/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20
Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 080
Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 082/084/085
90 Day Mean 18 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 020/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 015/018-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes |
|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes |
|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 40% | 25% |
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm
Observed Kp: 5-
The solar wind speed is currently high (749 km/sec.)
Latest news
Monday, 14 August 2017 - 18:56 UTC
Monday, 14 August 2017 - 13:21 UTC
Wednesday, 9 August 2017 - 19:09 UTC
Today's space weather
| Auroral activity |
Minor |
Severe |
| High latitude |
30% |
45% |
| Middle latitude |
10% |
1% |
| Predicted Kp max |
4 | |
| Solar activity |
|
| M-class solar flare |
10% |
| X-class solar flare |
1% |
| C3.5 C3.1 |
| Moon phase |
|---|
| Waning Crescent |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare: | 2015/05/05 | X2.7 |
| Last M-flare: | 2017/07/14 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm: | 2017/08/18 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Number of spotless days in 2017: | 56 |
| Last spotless day: | 2017/08/01 |
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