Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 16/2240Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/0904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 675 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Mar, 20 Mar) and quiet levels on day two (19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 069
  Predicted    18 Mar-20 Mar 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  014/016
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  007/008-005/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%20%25%
Major-severe storm 20%15%30%

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