Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (17 Nov) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 15/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/2143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
16/0511Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1315 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 071 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 006/005-008/008-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare: | 2017/09/10 | X8.2 |
| Last M-flare: | 2017/10/20 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm: | 2018/11/05 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Number of spotless days in 2018: | 190 | |
| Current stretch spotless days: | 2 | |