Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (17 Nov) and expected to be very low on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 15/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/2143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 16/0511Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1315 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Nov 071
  Predicted    17 Nov-19 Nov 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  002/003
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  006/005-008/008-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%25%25%
Major-severe storm 15%20%30%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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