Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 19/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 19/2156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 851 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Oct, 22 Oct) and
quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
|Class M ||01%||01%||01%|
|Class X ||01%||01%||01%|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 076
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 078/083/083
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 008/010-009/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
|A. Middle Latitudes|
|Minor storm ||05%||05%||01%|
|Major-severe storm ||01%||01%||01%|
|B. High Latitudes|
|Minor storm ||30%||30%||20%|
|Major-severe storm ||25%||25%||10%|