Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 19/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/2020Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Oct 065
  Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  009/012-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm30%25%05%

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