Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb,
21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 618 km/s at 19/0104Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 18/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2201Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 778 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb)
and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
|Class M ||01%||01%||01%|
|Class X ||01%||01%||01%|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 078
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 009/010-008/010-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
|A. Middle Latitudes|
|Minor storm ||05%||05%||10%|
|Major-severe storm ||01%||01%||01%|
|B. High Latitudes|
|Minor storm ||20%||20%||25%|
|Major-severe storm ||20%||25%||35%|