Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 14/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jul 072
  Predicted    16 Jul-18 Jul 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%20%20%
Major-severe storm 20%15%15%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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