Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 618 km/s at 19/0104Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/2201Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 778 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Feb 078
  Predicted    20 Feb-22 Feb 082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        19 Feb 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  009/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  009/010-008/010-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%25%
Major-severe storm 20%25%35%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 20%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
B4.5 B3.7 B5.4

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Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2016/11/29M1.2
Last geomagnetic storm:2017/02/01Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2017:11
Last spotless day:2017/02/08

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