Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 19/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
20/2020Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/2008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 065 Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 009/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 05% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare: | 2017/09/10 | X8.2 |
| Last M-flare: | 2017/10/20 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm: | 2019/09/28 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Number of spotless days in 2019: | 216 | |
| Current stretch spotless days: | 18 | |