Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (19 Aug, 20 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 18/0659Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/0101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M 10%10%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 080
  Predicted    19 Aug-21 Aug 082/084/085
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  020/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  016/022
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  015/018-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 45%40%25%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm
Observed Kp: 5-
The solar wind speed is currently high (749 km/sec.)

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 45%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 10%
X-class solar flare 1%
C3.5 C3.1
Moon phase
Waning Crescent

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Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2017/07/14M2.4
Last geomagnetic storm:2017/08/18Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2017:56
Last spotless day:2017/08/01

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