Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 24/0202Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/2332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/0425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7039 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Sep, 26 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 069 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 009/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare: | 2017/09/10 | X8.2 |
| Last M-flare: | 2017/10/20 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm: | 2018/09/22 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Number of spotless days in 2018: | 153 | |
| Current stretch spotless days: | 13 | |