Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 558 km/s at 21/0821Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/2321Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2852 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Feb 071
  Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  013/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

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