3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 Aug 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 22-Aug 24 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Aug 22     Aug 23     Aug 24
00-03UT        4          2          2     
03-06UT        4          3          1     
06-09UT        3          2          1     
09-12UT        2          2          1     
12-15UT        2          2          1     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        2          2          1     
21-00UT        3          2          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 22-Aug 24 2017

              Aug 22  Aug 23  Aug 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 22-Aug 24 2017

              Aug 22        Aug 23        Aug 24
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
There is a chance for R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts for the next three days (22-24 Aug) as Regions 2671 and 2672 maintain enhanced magnetic complexities.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
Active geomagnetic conditions expected
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (565.4 km/sec.)

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 35%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 25%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
New Moon

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