3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2016 Oct 27 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA scale G2).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 27-Oct 29 2016 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Oct 27     Oct 28     Oct 29
00-03UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4     
03-06UT        5 (G1)     4          4     
06-09UT        4          3          3     
09-12UT        3          3          3     
12-15UT        3          4          2     
15-18UT        3          4          2     
18-21UT        4          4          3     
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4     

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming likely on days one and two (27-28 Oct). Day three (29 Oct) is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated periods of active conditions as CH HSS effects slightly diminish.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 27-Oct 29 2016

              Oct 27  Oct 28  Oct 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 27-Oct 29 2016

              Oct 27        Oct 28        Oct 29
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
Active geomagnetic conditions expected
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (593.7 km/sec.)

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 25%
Middle latitude 15% 5%
Predicted Kp max 5
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%

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