3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 Aug 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA scale G1).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Aug 19     Aug 20     Aug 21
00-03UT        4          4          4     
03-06UT        4          3          3     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        3          3          3     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        3          3          2     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected for the forecast period (19-21 Aug) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2017

              Aug 19  Aug 20  Aug 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2017

              Aug 19        Aug 20        Aug 21
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts for the forecast period (19-21 Aug).
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm
Observed Kp: 5-
The solar wind speed is currently high (732.2 km/sec.)

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 45%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 10%
X-class solar flare 1%
C3.5 C3.1
Moon phase
Waning Crescent

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

89%

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2017/07/14M2.4
Last geomagnetic storm:2017/08/18Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2017:56
Last spotless day:2017/08/01

This day in history*

Solar flares
11998X3.9
22002M3.1
31998M3.0
42004M3.0
52003M2.7
ApG
1200638G2
2200230G1
3199924
4200319G2
5201518
*since 1994