3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2016 Aug 30 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 30-Sep 01 2016 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Aug 30     Aug 31     Sep 01
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          3     
03-06UT        4          4          4     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        3          3          3     
12-15UT        3          3          3     
15-18UT        2          3          3     
18-21UT        3          3          3     
21-00UT        3          3          4     

Rationale
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day one (Aug 30) due to coronal hole high speed stream activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 30-Sep 01 2016

              Aug 30  Aug 31  Sep 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 30-Sep 01 2016

              Aug 30        Aug 31        Sep 01
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity
Minor Severe
High latitude 15% 15%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 5
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 5%
X-class solar flare 1%
B5.6

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