3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2018 Aug 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 21-Aug 23 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Aug 21     Aug 22     Aug 23
00-03UT        4          3          3     
03-06UT        4          4          4     
06-09UT        3          4          3     
09-12UT        3          3          3     
12-15UT        3          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        3          3          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 21-Aug 23 2018

              Aug 21  Aug 22  Aug 23
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 21-Aug 23 2018

              Aug 21        Aug 22        Aug 23
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (607.2 km/sec.)

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

75%

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2018/07/05Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2018:130
Last spotless day:2018/08/13

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002X1.0
21999M5.9
31999M3.7
42014M3.4
52001M1.5
ApG
1200358G2
2200232G1
3201318
4200416
5200113
*since 1994

Social networks