3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2018 Oct 18 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 18-Oct 20 2018 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Oct 18     Oct 19     Oct 20
00-03UT        1          3          3     
03-06UT        2          3          3     
06-09UT        2          3          2     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        1          2          2     
15-18UT        1          4          2     
18-21UT        3          5 (G1)     2     
21-00UT        3          4          2     

Rationale
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 19 October. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 18-Oct 20 2018

              Oct 18  Oct 19  Oct 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 18-Oct 20 2018

              Oct 18        Oct 19        Oct 20
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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