3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2019 Nov 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 19-Nov 21 2019 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Nov 19     Nov 20     Nov 21
00-03UT        1          3          4     
03-06UT        1          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          3          4     
09-12UT        2          3          3     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          3          3     
18-21UT        3          4          4     
21-00UT        3          4          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on 19-20 Nov. However, CIR arrival and CH HSS onset are likely to lead to an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 21 Nov.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 19-Nov 21 2019

              Nov 19  Nov 20  Nov 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 19-Nov 21 2019

              Nov 19        Nov 20        Nov 21
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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