3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2019 Sep 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 24-Sep 26 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Sep 24     Sep 25     Sep 26
00-03UT        3          4          3     
03-06UT        3          3          3     
06-09UT        3          3          2     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          3          2     
18-21UT        1          2          2     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 24-Sep 26 2019

              Sep 24  Sep 25  Sep 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 24-Sep 26 2019

              Sep 24        Sep 25        Sep 26
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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