3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 Feb 20 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Feb 20     Feb 21     Feb 22
00-03UT        3          3          3     
03-06UT        3          3          2     
06-09UT        3          2          2     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          3          2     
15-18UT        2          3          2     
18-21UT        2          3          4     
21-00UT        2          2          4     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017

              Feb 20  Feb 21  Feb 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017

              Feb 20        Feb 21        Feb 22
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (533 km/sec.)

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 20%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%

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