3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2020 Aug 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 03-Aug 05 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Aug 03     Aug 04     Aug 05
00-03UT        4          3          3     
03-06UT        3          3          2     
06-09UT        3          2          2     
09-12UT        3          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          1     
15-18UT        2          1          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          3          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03 Aug due to persistent CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2020

              Aug 03  Aug 04  Aug 05
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2020

              Aug 03        Aug 04        Aug 05
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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