3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 Aug 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA scale G1).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Aug 19     Aug 20     Aug 21
00-03UT        4          4          4     
03-06UT        4          3          3     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        3          3          3     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        3          3          2     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected for the forecast period (19-21 Aug) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2017

              Aug 19  Aug 20  Aug 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2017

              Aug 19        Aug 20        Aug 21
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts for the forecast period (19-21 Aug).
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm
Observed Kp: 5-
The solar wind speed is currently high (732.2 km/sec.)

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 45%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 10%
X-class solar flare 1%
C3.5 C3.1
Moon phase
Waning Crescent

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