3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2016 Dec 09 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 09-Dec 11 2016 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Dec 09     Dec 10     Dec 11
00-03UT        5 (G1)     3          4     
03-06UT        4          3          3     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        3          3          3     
12-15UT        3          3          2     
15-18UT        3          3          2     
18-21UT        4          4          3     
21-00UT        4          4          3     

Rationale
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected early on 09 Dec as CH HSS effects continue.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 09-Dec 11 2016

              Dec 09  Dec 10  Dec 11
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 09-Dec 11 2016

              Dec 09        Dec 10        Dec 11
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (616.9 km/sec.)

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity
Minor Severe
High latitude 15% 10%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 5
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
B1.5

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