3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 Jan 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 24-Jan 26 2017 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Jan 24     Jan 25     Jan 26
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        1          2          2     
06-09UT        1          2          1     
09-12UT        1          1          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          1     
18-21UT        1          1          1     
21-00UT        2          1          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 24-Jan 26 2017

              Jan 24  Jan 25  Jan 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 24-Jan 26 2017

              Jan 24        Jan 25        Jan 26
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
There is a slight chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over the next three days (24-26 Jan) due to the flare potential from Regions 2627 and 2628.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 10%
Middle latitude 1% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 5%
X-class solar flare 1%
B1.9 B5.2 B2.6

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