3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2019 Nov 20 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 20-Nov 22 2019 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Nov 20     Nov 21     Nov 22
00-03UT        0          4          4     
03-06UT        1          5 (G1)     4     
06-09UT        0          4          3     
09-12UT        0          3          3     
12-15UT        2          2          3     
15-18UT        3          3          3     
18-21UT        4          4          4     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

Rationale
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 21 Nov due to influences from a positive polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2019

              Nov 20  Nov 21  Nov 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2019

              Nov 20        Nov 21        Nov 22
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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