3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2016 Sep 26 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA scale G1).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 26-Sep 28 2016 is 6 (NOAA scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Sep 26     Sep 27     Sep 28
00-03UT        4          4          4     
03-06UT        4          3          4     
06-09UT        3          3          5 (G1)
09-12UT        3          2          4     
12-15UT        3          2          4     
15-18UT        3          2          3     
18-21UT        4          2          5 (G1)
21-00UT        5 (G1)     2          6 (G2)

Rationale
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on days one and three (26-28 Sep) and G2 (Moderate) storm levels are expected on day three (28 Sep) due to the influence of multiple coronal hole high speed streams.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 26-Sep 28 2016

              Sep 26  Sep 27  Sep 28
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 26-Sep 28 2016

              Sep 26        Sep 27        Sep 28
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.56nT).

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 20%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 5
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
B4.2 B5.0 B3.1

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