M9 solar flare with earth-directed CME

Sunday, 11 February 2024 17:24 UTC

M9 solar flare with earth-directed CME

Finally a sign of life from sunspot region 3576! It produced an M9.0 solar flare (R2-moderate) which peaked yesterday at 23:07 UTC. The solar flare was fairly impulsive but did produce a nice eruption with a mostly northward trajectory.

We see on the SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery that an asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejection was launched but the bulk of the ejecta is heading north. However as we are dealing with a full halo CME, it does seem very likely that part of the plasma cloud will impact our planet. Based on a launch speed of about 850km/s we estimate the arrival of this CME around midnight UTC (plus/minus 6 hours) on 13 February. Minor G1 to moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions are possible after the cloud arrives at our planet.

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