Earth-directed CME, M6 solar flare

Friday, 15 December 2023 19:21 UTC

Earth-directed CME, M6 solar flare

Yesterday's X2.8 solar flare (which is the strongest solar flare since 2017) came from sunspot region 3514 which is rotating towards the west limb. It became clear quite soon following the event that it would be eruptive but is there a chance that the resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) arrives at Earth? Keep on reading for the answer!

As expected, the CME is directed primarily towards the west but we do see a clear partial halo signature of over 270 degrees which stands to reason that there is a good chance that this cloud will arrive as a glancing blow at Earth likely late on Saturday, December 16. We do not expect major geomagnetic storm conditions from this event but minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions with a slight chance of moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions are possible.

Double peak M6.2 and M6.9 solar flare

Sunspot region 3514 continued today with an impressive M-class event. This event had a double peak at M6.2 and M6.9 respectively with the M6.9 value being registered around 07:34 UTC. This solar flare was also highly eruptive like the X2.8 flare from yesterday but coronagraph imagery indicates that the coronal mass ejection from this event likely does not have an earth-directed component.

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