New forecast predicts quicker, stronger peak of solar activity

Thursday, 26 October 2023 16:53 UTC

New forecast predicts quicker, stronger peak of solar activity

Solar activity has been really low the past few months, much lower than one would expect this close to solar maximum. Strange as Solar Cycle 25 started of with a very decent amount of solar activity signaling that Solar Cycle 25 would likely surpass Solar Cycle 24 in terms of strength. So where are we right now? Did we pass solar maximum? Is this a temporary lull? Is Solar Cycle 25 maybe not going to be as strong as Solar Cycle 24? A new experimental model from the NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) might provide an answer...

The new Experimental Solar Cycle Prediction issued on the 25th of October concludes that solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than previously predicted back in 2019 by the Solar Cycle prediction panel. They predicted Solar Cycle 25 to peak in July 2025 at a maximum sunspot number of 115. The updated prediction calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak between January and October of 2024, with a maximum sunspot number between 137 and 173. Even with the updated prediction it would still make the strength of Solar Cycle 25 below average but stronger than Solar Cycle 24.

 A chart showing a measure of SSN values. Note the bold black line (recorded monthly averages) generally following the bold red line (forecast as made by McIntosh and his team) implying a good agreement between forecast and recorded values. Image Credit Scott McIntosh.
Experimental Solar Cycle 25 prediction. Image Credit NOAA SWPC Prediction Testbed.

To read the full article please visit this page. The experimental Solar Cycle Progression Updated Prediction product can be found here.

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