M6.3 flare, double CME impact expected

Sunday, 26 February 2023 11:16 UTC

M6.3 flare, double CME impact expected

Sunspot region 3229 does it again this time with an M6.2 solar flare that peaked yesterday at 19:44 UTC. This long duration solar flare was again highly eruptive just like the M3.7 solar flare. A minor S1 solar radiation storm followed as a result of this eruption which has minor impacts on HF radio communications at high latitudes.

LASCO imagery reveal an asymmetrical halo coronal mass ejection. Just like with the M3 solar flare, most of the ejecta is heading to the north-west but a good portion of the cloud should have an earth-directed component. The M3 coronal mass ejection is expected to arrive during within the next 12 to 24 hours (early 27 February). The coronal mass ejection from yesterday's M6.2 solar flare is slightly faster and should have a relatively clear path trough interplanetary space meaning it will not slow down too much. This coronal mass ejection could arrive slightly after the from the leading egde of the M3 coronal mass ejection passes Earth. An impact window late on 27 February for the M6.2 coronal mass ejection is reasonable. This means we will see the influences of two coronal mass ejections at the same time late tomorrow moving into 28 February. How will this pan out? Hard to say but we are in for at least two days of geomagnetic unrest where moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions seem likely, with a small chance of strong G3 geomagnetic storm conditions which would mean visible aurora from middle latitudes if all goes our way.

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