Monday, 16 November 2015 - 11:29 UTC
A large filament erupted yesterday close to the center of the earth-facing solar disk. This eruption was quickly followed by a smaller filament eruption near the same location.
Video: Two filament structures can be seen erupting on this video from NASA SDO.
Coronagraph imagery shows us that a majority of the plasma cloud is going SW of Earth. A partial halo coronal mass ejection can be seen but it doesn't even exceed 180 degrees which means that this plasma cloud likely isn't directed towards Earth. We can conclude that this event will likely be a near miss. A glancing blow can not be excluded but the chance for that is low. Based on SOHO imagery we unfortunately have to conclude that us sky watchers shouldn't get our hopes up from this event.
Animation: SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery showing the CME from yesterday's filament eruption.
A minor coronal hole has been facing Earth the past 24 hours. A solar wind stream flowing from this coronal hole could arrive at Earth in 48 to 96 hours from now. Active (Kp4) geomagnetic conditions are expected at most once the stream arrives.
Image: A small coronal hole faces Earth as seen by NASA SDO.
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