M3.9 coronal mass ejection

Tuesday, 10 November 2015 11:01 UTC

M3.9 coronal mass ejection

It took a little while but there is finally enough SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery to analyse the coronal mass ejection that was released during yesterday's M3.9 solar flare from sunspot region 2449. A partial halo coronal mass ejection was launched and a glancing blow might arrive at Earth.

For more information regarding that event please visit our news article from yesterday.

Analysis

Animation: The M3.9 coronal mass ejection as seen by SOHO/LASCO C2.

Animation: The M3.9 coronal mass ejection as seen by SOHO/LASCO C3.

SOHO/LASCO shows us a partial halo coronal mass ejection which can be seen leaving the Sun at a speed of about 650km/s. The bulk of this coronal mass ejection is directed well south and east from Earth. We expect a minor glancing blow at most either late tomorrow (UTC timezone) or early on Thursday 12 November. We do not say this too often but NOAA's ENLIL solar wind model looks fairly accurate compared to with what we have in mind. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) are expected from this event with a minor chance for an isolated period where we could reach the minor G1 (Kp5) geomagnetic storm threshold.

Any mentioned solar flare in this article has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the reported solar flares are 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

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