OVATION Auroral Forecast

This model gives a short-term forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval for both the northern and the southern hemisphere. It is based on the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the right-hand corner of the map. Locations up to 1.000 kilometers (600 miles) north or south of the auroral oval might still see aurora near their horizon during optimal viewing conditions. This model does not take into account the local weather or the altitude of the Sun at your location.

Northern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Southern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Hemispheric Power

The OVATION model calculates a globally integrated total energy deposition in GigaWatts for up to 30 minutes in the future. For values below about 20GW, there may be little or no aurora observable. For values between 20 and 50, you may need to be near the aurora to see it. For values above 50, the aurora should be quite observable with lots of activity and motion across the sky. Once the Hemispheric Power reaches levels of 100 or more, this is considered to be a very significant geomagnetic storm.

What are the odds that I can see overhead aurora from my location?

Canada
Alert, NU0%
Calgary, AB0%
Edmonton, AB0%
Gillam, MB10%
Iqaluit, NU5%
Montreal, QC0%
Ottawa, ON0%
Quebec City, QC0%
Resolute, NV0%
Saskatoon, SK0%
Thunder Bay, ON0%
Toronto, ON0%
Vancouver, BC0%
Whitehorse, YT5%
Winnipeg, MB0%
Yellowknife, NT12%
Cuba
Havana0%
Mexico
Mexico City0%
Monterrey0%
United States
Albuquerque, NM0%
Anchorage, AK0%
Atlanta, GA0%
Billings, MT0%
Biose, ID0%
Bismarck, ND0%
Boston, MA0%
Casper, WY0%
Chicago, IL0%
Columbus, OH0%
Dallas, TX0%
Denver, CO0%
Detroit, MI0%
Fairbanks, AK6%
Great Falls, MT0%
Indianapolis, IN0%
Jackson, MS0%
Juneau, AK0%
Las Vegas, NV0%
Lincoln, NE0%
Little Rock, AR0%
Los Angeles, CA0%
Miami, FL0%
Minneapolis, MN0%
Montpelier, VT0%
Nashville, TN0%
New York City, NY0%
Portland, OR0%
Richmond, VA0%
Salt Lake City, UT0%
San Francisco, CA0%
Seattle, WA0%
St. Louis, MO0%
Utqiagvik, AK5%
Washington, D.C.0%
Japan
Tokyo0%
Russia
Vladivostok0%
Yakutsk0%
South Korea
Seoul0%
Australia
Brisbane0%
New Zealand
Auckland0%
Christchurch0%
Wellington0%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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