OVATION Auroral Forecast

This model gives a short-term forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval for both the northern and the southern hemisphere. It is based on the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the right-hand corner of the map. Locations up to 1.000 kilometers (600 miles) north or south of the auroral oval might still see aurora near their horizon during optimal viewing conditions. This model does not take into account the local weather or the altitude of the Sun at your location.

Northern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Southern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Hemispheric Power

The OVATION model calculates a globally integrated total energy deposition in GigaWatts for up to 30 minutes in the future. For values below about 20GW, there may be little or no aurora observable. For values between 20 and 50, you may need to be near the aurora to see it. For values above 50, the aurora should be quite observable with lots of activity and motion across the sky. Once the Hemispheric Power reaches levels of 100 or more, this is considered to be a very significant geomagnetic storm.

What are the odds that I can see overhead aurora from my location?

North America
Canada
Calgary, AB 0%
Edmonton, AB 0%
Gillam, MB 0%
Halifax, NS 0%
Iqaluit, NU 4%
Montreal, QC 0%
Ottawa, ON 0%
Quebec City, QC 0%
Saskatoon, SK 0%
St. John's, NL 0%
Thunder Bay, ON 0%
Toronto, ON 0%
Vancouver, BC 0%
Whitehorse, YT 0%
Winnipeg, MB 0%
Yellowknife, NT 1%
Cuba
Havana 0%
Greenland
Nuuk 4%
Mexico
Mexico City 0%
Monterrey 0%
United States
Albuquerque, NM 0%
Anchorage, AK 0%
Atlanta, GA 0%
Augusta, ME 0%
Barrow, AK 1%
Billings, MT 0%
Biose, ID 0%
Bismarck, ND 0%
Boston, MA 0%
Casper, WY 0%
Chicago, IL 0%
Columbus, OH 0%
Dallas, TX 0%
Denver, CO 0%
Detroit, MI 0%
Fairbanks, AK 0%
Great Falls, MT 0%
Indianapolis, IN 0%
Jackson, MS 0%
Juneau, AK 0%
Las Vegas, NV 0%
Lincoln, NE 0%
Little Rock, AR 0%
Los Angeles, CA 0%
Miami, FL 0%
Minneapolis, MN 0%
Montpelier, VT 0%
Nashville, TN 0%
New York City, NY 0%
Portland, OR 0%
Richmond, VA 0%
Salt Lake City, UT 0%
San Francisco, CA 0%
Seattle, WA 0%
St. Louis, MO 0%
Washington, D.C. 0%
Europe and Asia
Austria
Vienna 0%
Belarus
Minsk 0%
Belgium
Brussels 0%
China
Beijing 0%
Czech Republic
Brno 0%
Prague 0%
Denmark
Aalborg 0%
Aarhus 0%
Copenhagen 0%
Estonia
Tallinn 0%
Faroe Islands
Tórshavn 5%
Finland
Helsinki 0%
Oulu 2%
Rovaniemi 3%
Tampere 0%
Turku 0%
France
Lyon 0%
Marseille 0%
Nantes 0%
Nice 0%
Paris 0%
Toulouse 0%
Germany
Berlin 0%
Cologne 0%
Frankfurt 0%
Hamburg 0%
Munich 0%
Greece
Athens 0%
Hungary
Budapest 0%
Iceland
Reykjavik 9%
Ireland
Dublin 0%
Italy
Milan 0%
Naples 0%
Rome 0%
Turin 0%
Japan
Tokyo 0%
Kazakhstan
Astana 0%
Latvia
Riga 0%
Lithuania
Vilnius 0%
Mongolia
Ulan Bator 0%
Netherlands
Amsterdam 0%
Norway
Bergen 0%
Kirkenes 4%
Oslo 0%
Tromsø 6%
Trondheim 3%
Poland
Gdańsk 0%
Krakow 0%
Warsaw 0%
Portugal
Lisbon 0%
Porto 0%
Romania
Bucharest 0%
Russia
Arkhangelsk 0%
Irkutsk 0%
Kazan 0%
Moscow 0%
Murmansk 3%
Novosibirsk 0%
Perm 0%
Saint Petersburg 0%
Vladivostok 0%
Yekaterinburg 0%
Slovenia
Ljubljana 0%
Slovakia
Bratislava 0%
South Korea
Seoul 0%
Spain
Barcelona 0%
Madrid 0%
Sweden
Gothenburg 0%
Kiruna 5%
Luleå 3%
Malmö 0%
Stockholm 0%
Sundsvall 0%
Umeå 2%
Switzerland
Bern 0%
United Kingdom
Belfast 0%
Birmingham 0%
Edinburgh 0%
London 0%
Manchester 0%
Ukraine
Dnipropetrovsk 0%
Donetsk 0%
Kharkiv 0%
Kiev 0%
Southern hemisphere
Argentina
Buenos Aires 0%
Comodoro Rivadavia 0%
Ushuaia 0%
Australia
Adelaide 0%
Alice Springs 0%
Brisbane 0%
Devonport 0%
Hobart 0%
Melbourne 0%
Perth 0%
Sydney 0%
Chile
Concepcion 0%
Punta Arenas 0%
New Zealand
Auckland 0%
Christchurch 0%
Dunedin 0%
Invercargill 0%
Wellington 0%
South Africa
Capetown 0%
Durban 0%
Uruguay
Montevideo 0%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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