Viewing archive of Friday, 7 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 07/0212Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 07/0109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
07/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 829 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 071 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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