Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 January 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 450 km/s at 12/0128Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/0201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/0135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 979 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Jan) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 072 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 071/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 008/008-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
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