Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 October 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 09/0649Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 459 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 068
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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