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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 02/1658Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3906 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Oct 068
  Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        02 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  009/012-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm40%25%20%

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