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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 01/1342Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/0215Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0424Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8373 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Oct, 04 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (03 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Oct 069
  Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        01 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Oct  013/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  009/010-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%40%25%

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