Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 August 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Aug 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 04/0807Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/1339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0746Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (06 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Aug 067
  Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        04 Aug 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Aug  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  018/025-020/025-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm55%55%35%

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