Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 July 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jul 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 418 km/s at 04/0133Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
04/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/1917Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (07 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 068 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 013/018-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 20% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2017/09/10 | X8.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2020/05/29 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2020/04/20 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 287 days |
| 2020 | 158 days (70%) |
| Current stretch | 2 days |