Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 July 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jul 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s at 04/0133Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1917Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (07 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jul 068
  Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        04 Jul 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  013/018-007/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%10%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm50%30%20%

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