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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 May 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (02 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (03 May, 04 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/1907Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1607Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 May) and quiet levels on day three (04 May).
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 May 068
  Predicted   02 May-04 May 068/070/072
  90 Day Mean        01 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 May  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  014/015-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%25%10%

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