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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Apr 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 02/1312Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1916Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/1904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 196 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Apr 071
  Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 071/071/070
  90 Day Mean        02 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Apr  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  007/008-007/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%30%25%

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