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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 31/1704Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/0201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 806 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Mar 070
  Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        31 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Mar  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  007/010-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm30%25%30%

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