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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (25 Mar) and expected to be very low on days two and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 297 km/s at 24/2052Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 24/0538Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 955 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Mar, 27 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 075
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 073/071/070
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  014/015-008/008-013/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%20%30%
Major-severe storm30%20%45%

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